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    <pre style="white-space:pre-line"><code>Makale

Cemil KoyunoÄŸlu

Yalova Ãœniversitesi
MÃ¼hendislik FakÃ¼ltesi
Enerji Sistemleri MÃ¼hendisliÄŸi BÃ¶lÃ¼mÃ¼

Fotovoltaik (PV) Panel AtÄ±k Hacimleri-4

Ã–zet                                                           Erken kayÄ±p senaryosu, kÄ±rÄ±k cam, kÄ±rÄ±k hÃ¼creler veya ÅŸe-
Daha Ã¶nceki yazÄ±mÄ±zda bahsettiÄŸimiz her iki senaryo da         ritler ve izolasyon kusurlarÄ± olan Ã§atlak arka tabaka gibi
30 yÄ±llÄ±k ortalama panel Ã¶mrÃ¼ ve 40 yÄ±l sonra %99,99           panel deÄŸiÅŸimi gerektiren arÄ±zalarÄ± iÃ§erir. Bununla birlikte,
kayÄ±p olasÄ±lÄ±ÄŸÄ±nÄ± varsaymÄ±ÅŸtÄ±r. 30 yÄ±llÄ±k bir panel Ã¶mrÃ¼nÃ¼n    yalnÄ±zca tamamen deÄŸiÅŸtirilmesini gerektiren ciddi iÅŸlev-
Ã§evresel etki analizinde (Ã¶rneÄŸin, yaÅŸam dÃ¶ngÃ¼sÃ¼ de-           sel veya gÃ¼venlik kusurlarÄ±na sahip paneller dahil edi-
ÄŸerlendirmelerinde) bu deÄŸerlendirmeler daha net yapÄ±-         lirken, Ã¶rneÄŸin gÃ¼Ã§ Ã§Ä±kÄ±ÅŸÄ±nÄ± azaltan veya panel renginin
labilir. YapÄ±lan modellerde Ã¶rneÄŸin en geÃ§ 40 yÄ±lda PV         solmasÄ±na neden olan diÄŸer kusurlar gÃ¶z ardÄ± edilir. Er-
panellerinin yenileme ve modernizasyon iÃ§in sÃ¶kÃ¼ldÃ¼ÄŸÃ¼          ken kayÄ±p senaryosunda, ÅŸekil faktÃ¶rÃ¼, literatÃ¼rdeki veri
varsayÄ±lÄ±r. DolayÄ±sÄ±yla, PV panellerin dayanÄ±klÄ±lÄ±ÄŸÄ±nÄ±n, cep-  noktalarÄ± arasÄ±nda bir regresyon analizi ile hesaplanmÄ±ÅŸ
he elemanlarÄ± veya Ã§atÄ± kiremitleri gibi ortalama bina ve      ve aynÄ± zamanda erken baÅŸarÄ±sÄ±zlÄ±klar olarak deÄŸerlendi-
inÅŸaat Ã¼rÃ¼nÃ¼ deneyimleriyle uyumlu olduÄŸu varsayÄ±labi-         rilmiÅŸtir. Erken kayÄ±p senaryosu iÃ§in ortaya Ã§Ä±kan alfa ÅŸekil
lir. BunlarÄ±n da geleneksel olarak 30-40 yÄ±llÄ±k bir Ã¶mÃ¼rle-    faktÃ¶rÃ¼ 2,4928, sunulan literatÃ¼r deÄŸerlerinden daha dÃ¼-
rinin olduÄŸu varsayÄ±lÄ±r.                                       ÅŸÃ¼ktÃ¼r. Bunun nedeni, bir panelin daha uzun sÃ¼re dayan-
Model Senaryosu                                                masÄ± durumunda ilk 30 yÄ±lda daha yÃ¼ksek kayÄ±plara ve
Erken zarar senaryosunda, literatÃ¼r analizine ve uzman         daha sonraki yaÅŸamda daha dÃ¼ÅŸÃ¼k kayÄ±plara neden olan
gÃ¶rÃ¼ÅŸÃ¼ne dayalÄ± olarak aÅŸaÄŸÄ±daki zarar varsayÄ±mlarÄ± ya-        erken kusurlarÄ± iÃ§ermesidir. Her bir senaryo iÃ§in (normal
pÄ±labilir:                                                     kayÄ±p ve erken kayÄ±p), arÄ±za olasÄ±lÄ±ÄŸÄ± deÄŸeri (alfa), Weibull
                                                               iÅŸlevine gÃ¶re belirli bir yÄ±lda kurulan panellerin aÄŸÄ±rlÄ±ÄŸÄ±yla
â€¢	 PV panellerinin %0,5â€™inin (MW cinsinden kurulu PV           Ã§arpÄ±lÄ±r. DÃ¼zenli zarar senaryosunda daha bÃ¼yÃ¼k bir alfa
                                                               deÄŸeri kullanÄ±ldÄ±ÄŸÄ±ndan, eÄŸri dÃ¼zgÃ¼n bir ÅŸekilde yÃ¼kse-
     kapasitesi ile) nakliye ve kurulum aÅŸamalarÄ±ndaki         lir ve 30 yÄ±llÄ±k nominal Ã¶mÃ¼r noktasÄ±nda erken zarar se-
     hasar nedeniyle kullanÄ±m Ã¶mrÃ¼nÃ¼n sonuna ulaÅŸtÄ±ÄŸÄ±          naryosu eÄŸrisi ile kesiÅŸir. Weibull iÅŸlevi doÄŸrultusunda ve
     varsayÄ±lmaktadÄ±r,                                         atanan farklÄ± alfa parametreleri nedeniyle, dÃ¼zenli zarar
                                                               ve erken zarar senaryolarÄ± 30 yÄ±l sonra ters etkiye sahip-
â€¢	 KÃ¶tÃ¼ kurulum nedeniyle PV panellerin %0,5â€™i iki yÄ±l         tir. Bu nedenle, dÃ¼zenli kayÄ±p senaryosu, 30 yÄ±ldan sonra
                                                               daha yÃ¼ksek bir kayÄ±p olasÄ±lÄ±ÄŸÄ±nÄ± gÃ¶sterir (bkz. Åekil 1).
     iÃ§inde atÄ±k haline gelecektir,

â€¢	 %2â€™si on yÄ±l sonra atÄ±k haline gelecektir,
â€¢	 %4â€™Ã¼ teknik arÄ±zalardan dolayÄ± 15 yÄ±l sonra israf ola-

     caktÄ±r.

                                                                       Åekil 1. Bir ÅŸekil faktÃ¶rlÃ¼
                                                                         Weibull eÄŸrisi Ã¶rneÄŸi

8 Ocak - Åubat 2021</code></pre>
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